Mathematical model of infection kinetics and its analysis for COVID-19, SARS and MERS
Identifieur interne : 000157 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000156; suivant : 000158Mathematical model of infection kinetics and its analysis for COVID-19, SARS and MERS
Auteurs : Kaihao LiangSource :
- Infection, Genetics and Evolution [ 1567-1348 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread rules of the three pneumonia: COVID-19, SARS and MERS. We compare the new spread characteristics of COVID-19 with those of SARS and MERS. By considering the growth rate and inhibition constant of infectious diseases, their propagation growth model is established. The parameters of the three coronavirus transmission growth models are obtained by nonlinear fitting. Parametric analysis shows that the growth rate of COVID-19 is about twice that of the SARS and MERS, and the COVID-19 doubling cycle is two to three days, suggesting that the number of COVID-19 patients would double in two to three days without human intervention. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei is two orders of magnitude lower than in other regions, which reasonably explains the situation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104306
PubMed: 32278147
PubMed Central: 7141629
Affiliations:
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We compare the new spread characteristics of COVID-19 with those of SARS and MERS. By considering the growth rate and inhibition constant of infectious diseases, their propagation growth model is established. The parameters of the three coronavirus transmission growth models are obtained by nonlinear fitting. Parametric analysis shows that the growth rate of COVID-19 is about twice that of the SARS and MERS, and the COVID-19 doubling cycle is two to three days, suggesting that the number of COVID-19 patients would double in two to three days without human intervention. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei is two orders of magnitude lower than in other regions, which reasonably explains the situation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bi, N" uniqKey="Bi N">N. Bi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Liang, K H" uniqKey="Liang K">K.H. 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Yang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yuan, Z" uniqKey="Yuan Z">Z. Yuan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jia, Z" uniqKey="Jia Z">Z. Jia</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zhang, X" uniqKey="Zhang X">X. Zhang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, J" uniqKey="Wu J">J. Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhao, P" uniqKey="Zhao P">P. Zhao</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Liang, Kaihao" sort="Liang, Kaihao" uniqKey="Liang K" first="Kaihao" last="Liang">Kaihao Liang</name></noCountry></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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